Why China’s Ambitious Food Security Goals Face Major Hurdles
Image Credit: Reuters
China, the world’s largest importer of agricultural products, has ambitious plans to drastically reduce its reliance on foreign imports over the next decade to bolster its food security. However, experts believe these targets will be extremely challenging to achieve due to significant constraints in land, water, and other resources.
In a recent document released in late April, the Chinese government outlined its goal to achieve 92% self-sufficiency in staple grains and beans by 2033, up from the 84% level during 2021-2023. This move aligns with President Xi Jinping’s vision of transforming China into an “agricultural power” by the mid-21st century.
To meet these targets, China must substantially increase farming productivity using advanced technology, including genetically modified crops, and expand its cultivated areas. However, this shift could negatively impact agricultural exporters like the United States, Brazil, and Indonesia, which have expanded their production capacities to meet China’s massive demand for soybeans, meat, and grains.
The Ministry of Agriculture forecasts a significant reduction in corn and wheat imports by 2033, expecting a 75% decrease in corn imports to 6.8 million tons and a 60% drop in wheat imports to 4.85 million tons. Soybean imports, a major component of China’s agricultural import bill, are projected to fall by 21% to 78.7 million tons over the same period.
These ambitious targets appear unlikely to many analysts, given the recent trends. Over the past decade, China’s imports of grains and oilseeds have surged by 87%. Darin Friedrichs, co-founder of Sitonia Consulting in Shanghai, expressed skepticism, stating, “Forecasting a sharp reversal where in 10 years the country will be importing less than it does today seems questionable.”
The primary challenges for China in meeting these goals are its limited land and water resources. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts that China’s corn imports in 2033/34 will be similar to current levels, with only a 20% reduction in wheat imports. Notably, the USDA expects soybean imports to rise by 39%.
China’s push for food security has intensified due to recent disruptions in global supply chains caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Additionally, a trade war with the U.S., its second-largest agricultural supplier, and climate-related challenges have further emphasized the need for self-reliance.
In response, China is implementing a new food security law starting June 1, mandating absolute self-sufficiency in staple grains and incorporating food security into local economic and development plans. The government is also enhancing support for farmers through increased grain insurance coverage and launching initiatives to boost grain output by at least 50 million tons by 2030.
Despite these efforts, China’s agriculture sector faces significant hurdles. The country’s arable land per capita is much lower compared to Brazil and the U.S., and a substantial portion of it is degraded due to overuse of chemicals and heavy metal contamination. To address this, China is investing heavily in research to grow crops in desert regions and develop saline-tolerant varieties.
However, China’s predominance of small, fragmented farms, often operated by aging farmers, poses another challenge. The average farm size in China is only 0.65 hectares, compared to 187 hectares in the U.S. and 60 hectares in Germany. While there is a gradual move towards farm consolidation and the adoption of genetically modified crops, analysts remain skeptical about the feasibility of significantly reducing soybean imports.
Carl Pray, an agriculture professor at Rutgers University, suggests that while China might reduce its dependence on soybean imports to some extent, achieving complete self-sufficiency is unlikely. “To produce enough soybeans to replace the Brazilian and U.S. imports, there is just not enough land,” he explained.
As reported by Reuters in their recent article
