China Aims to Dethrone Musk as the Space Industry Leader

Image Credit: SpaceX

China is making strides to challenge Elon Musk’s dominance in the reusable launch vehicle sector, aiming to bridge a significant technological gap with the United States. Beijing is mobilizing both aerospace startups and state-owned enterprises to develop rockets that can be reused multiple times to deploy satellites into low-Earth orbit, thus potentially changing the landscape of space technology.

One notable player in this endeavor is LandSpace Technology Corp., which recently achieved a milestone with its Zhuque-3 reusable rocket. The rocket successfully completed a 10-kilometer vertical takeoff and landing return test at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center, marking what Chinese state media called a “significant breakthrough in China’s commercial space industry.” This test is a crucial step toward achieving high capacity, low cost, high frequency, and reusability in future space missions.

Another promising contender is Deep Blue Aerospace, a startup planning to test a reusable rocket shortly. Success in this test would bring Deep Blue a step closer to offering the kind of regular orbital deployment service currently dominated by SpaceX’s reusable Falcon 9 rockets. Huo Liang, CEO of Jiangsu Deep Blue Aerospace Technology Co., acknowledges the benchmark set by SpaceX. “Their rockets are now flying routinely and repeatedly executing commercial missions, whereas China has not yet mastered this technology,” Liang stated.

While China’s space program has achieved remarkable feats, such as multiple landings on the moon and Mars, it lags in developing reusable rockets. Most Asian, European, and Russian space vehicles are still single-use, giving Musk’s SpaceX a near-monopoly on the global market. Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin has made progress with its reusable New Shepard rocket, which conducts sub-orbital missions. However, its larger New Glenn rocket, designed for orbital missions, is behind schedule.

Since 2017, SpaceX has been reusing rocket boosters, enabling lower-cost launches at rapid intervals and expanding its Starlink satellite network. This gives SpaceX, and by extension the U.S., a significant cost advantage. Chinese companies are now on the verge of a sustained breakthrough with rockets like Deep Blue’s Nebula-1, which aim to rival SpaceX in both technology and cost efficiency.

Carter Palmer, lead analyst for space systems at Forecast International, predicts that a reusable Chinese rocket would be significantly less expensive than SpaceX’s Falcon 9. However, achieving this will take time and numerous test cycles, as evidenced by a June test where Beijing Tianbing Technology Co. crashed a rocket into a mountainside during testing.

Other global players are also grappling with reusability strategies. Europe’s ArianeGroup, Japan’s Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, and the United Launch Alliance in the U.S. are all working towards developing reusable rockets. Mitsubishi Heavy’s CEO, Seiji Izumisawa, mentioned that while the company aims to introduce a reusable launch vehicle, it is not yet at the stage of developing one.

For China, the development of reusable rockets is a matter of national pride and security. President Xi Jinping’s administration is keen on creating a robust commercial space industry to serve domestic needs and compete internationally. Oriana Skylar Mastro, a fellow at Stanford University’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, noted that China intends to leverage its space capabilities to reduce reliance on the U.S. and attract global customers.

China is also keen to counterbalance SpaceX’s Starlink, which has been influential in conflict zones like Ukraine and in providing internet to underserved regions globally. Peter Garretson, a senior fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council, highlighted that reusable rockets are essential for China’s broader space ambitions, including building satellite networks and other significant projects like a lunar research base and an orbital solar power station.

Several Chinese companies, including state-owned enterprises, are in the race to develop reusable rockets. CASC’s Shanghai Academy of Spaceflight Technology conducted a test in the Gobi Desert in June, aiming for a first flight by 2025. Beijing-based LandSpace plans to commence commercial flights in 2025. Other companies like Galactic Energy Aerospace Technology Co. and Orienspace are also in the fray, with Orienspace planning to launch its reusable Gravity-2 rocket by early 2026.

Despite the substantial government support for China’s space sector, it remains uncertain if the country can nurture a national champion capable of surpassing SpaceX. Jianwei Li, managing partner of Zhencheng Capital, a venture capital firm in Beijing, expressed skepticism. “Every company says they want to be China’s SpaceX, but let’s be realistic,” Li said. “Everyone’s not doing that well.”

In summary, while China is making significant strides towards developing reusable rockets, the journey is fraught with challenges. The success of these efforts could redefine global space technology, positioning China as a formidable competitor in the space industry. However, only time will tell if China can achieve its ambitious goals and effectively rival SpaceX’s current dominance.

This story was originally featured in World Travel Awards