Why NOAA’s Early Hurricane Forecast for 2024 Signals an Extraordinary Season

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued its highest-ever early forecast for the upcoming hurricane season. Forecasters predict an exceptionally active season, with unprecedented levels of storm activity expected.

In a press conference on Thursday, NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad emphasized the unusual nature of this year’s forecast. “The forecast for named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes is the highest NOAA has ever issued for the May outlook,” Spinrad stated. “This season is looking to be extraordinary in several ways.”

NOAA’s forecast predicts between eight to 13 hurricanes and 17 to 25 named storms, which are storms with wind speeds of 39 mph or higher. The near-record warmth in the Atlantic Ocean and a strong likelihood of La Niña conditions have led forecasters to believe there is an 85% chance of an above-normal season along the Atlantic seaboard.

Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service, reinforced this outlook. “All the ingredients are definitely in place to have an active season,” Graham said.

The hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, typically peaks in late summer and early fall. However, the current climatic conditions suggest that this year could see heightened activity much earlier.

Global warming is playing a significant role in this forecast. The warming atmosphere increases the potential for hurricanes to rapidly gain strength as they approach land. Additionally, climate change is raising the likelihood that storms will stall and drop heavy rainfall once they make landfall.

NOAA’s forecast is consistent with other public, private, and government hurricane forecast services. A website operated by Colorado State University and the Barcelona Supercomputing Center, which tracks annual hurricane predictions, aggregates early forecasts from 23 centers. The consensus among these forecasts aligns closely with NOAA’s predictions, with an average expectation of 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher based on wind speeds).

“This number of storms would be the third most on record,” said Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist at Colorado State University who specializes in Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts. The 2020 season holds the record with 30 named storms, 12 of which made landfall in the U.S.

Last year, the Atlantic saw 20 named storms, including seven hurricanes. This year’s unusual alignment of record sea surface temperatures and a strong likelihood of La Niña conditions further strengthens the forecast for an active season.

“Last year was an interesting season with a clash of the Titans. The Atlantic was extremely warm, but there was a strong El Niño which usually suppresses storm activity,” Klotzbach explained. “This year, the Atlantic is still super hot, and El Niño is gone, so everything is pulling in the same direction.”

Brian McNoldy, a senior research associate at the University of Miami, noted the unprecedented nature of this year’s conditions. “We’ve never had a La Niña with ocean temperatures this warm in the Atlantic before,” McNoldy said. “We’re certainly in uncharted territory. As someone who lives in a hurricane-prone area, I’m not too excited about it.”

Record sea surface temperatures have persisted worldwide for over a year. In the Caribbean, May temperatures are now warmer than the typical peak temperatures. The tropical east Atlantic is experiencing temperatures normally seen in August.

These high sea surface temperatures could fuel rapid intensification, a phenomenon where hurricane winds increase suddenly as the storm nears land. Climate change makes this process more likely. A study last year found that from 2001 to 2020, tropical cyclones in the Atlantic were about 29% more likely to undergo rapid intensification compared to 1971 to 1990. Hurricane Idalia, which strengthened from Category 1 to Category 4 in just 24 hours, exemplifies this trend.

Despite the high forecast, it does not guarantee that a major hurricane will make landfall in the U.S. “We have no idea where the storms will go, but when you have a lot of darts, one of them is bound to hit the board,” Klotzbach concluded.

This year’s forecast signals a season that requires heightened preparedness and vigilance as the potential for severe weather events increases.

As reported by NCB News in their recent article